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Back to NFL projections

NFL individual stat level

Individual Stat Projection

Toggle between the latest Stat Gap, Top Down Model, and Bottom Up Model outputs and review thecore football stats: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns.

Projection data

Model projection run

Pulled from the latest NFL stat-line run.

Run details+

Model: Stat Gap individual stat projection

Projection generated: Coming soon

Projections by: Jacob Bellinger

Primary inputs: reconciliation of player passing, rushing, and receiving projections with expected team production.

Stat Gap

Stat Gap stat lines

Scroll to compare columns ↔

Coming soon

Behind the projections

Jacob Bellinger

Jacob Bellinger

Model creator

One projection is a starting point. Perspective is the difference.

Explore the methodology →

Stat Gap

Compares player-first projections with team totals, then reconciles passing, rushing, and receiving gaps across players based on expected snaps and workload.

Top Down

Projects team plays, passing and rushing production, and scoring first, then distributes that output by each player’s role, snap share, carries, and targets.

Bottom Up

Starts with each player’s efficiency per pass attempt, carry, or target, then scales it to expected passing attempts, rushing attempts, and receiving opportunities.

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